jeudi 8 novembre 2007
So here we are wondering about Kosovo's future
So here we are ten days away from parliamentary and local elections in Kosovo (a province whose population is 95% Albanian). Negociations between Serbia and the province, which is technically part of Serbia but wants its independence from Belgrade, are going so slowly they are almost going backwards. Despite the efforts of the international group of mediators, the troïka, Serbian and Kosovan-Albanian positions seem irreconciliable and Kosovo has threatened to declare independence by or on December 10th, the day the different sides are supposed to report back to the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon.
Here is a quick history of Kosovo and its relations with Serbia, to understand what is going on (thank you the BBC). A brief (and amateurish) analysis of what has been happening since 2005 follows.
1946: Kosovo is part of the Yugoslav federation
1960s : Belgrade (capital of Serbia) shows increasing tolerance for Kosovo's autonomy
1974 : the Consitution of Yugoslavia recognises the autonomous status of Kosovo and gives the province self-government
1989 : President Slobodan Milosevic amends the Constitution and starts withdrawing Kosovo's autonomous rights
1990 : Ethnic Albanians declare independence. Belgrade dissolves the government of Kosovo
1993-1997 : Inter ethnic strife worsens between Serbs and Albanians
March to September 1998 : Open conflict between Serb police and separatist Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Serb forces launch a brutal crackdown. Civilians are driven from their homes
Septembre 1998 : Nato gives an ultimatum to President Milosevic to halt the crackdown on Kosovo Albanians.
March 1999 : Internationally-brokered peace talks fail. Nato launches air strikes against Yugoslavia lasting 78 days before Belgrade yields.
June 1999 : President Milosevic agrees to withdraw troops from Kosovo. Nato calls off air strikes. The UN sets up a Kosovo Peace Implementation Force (Kfor) and Nato forces arrive in the province. The KLA agrees to disarm. Serb civilians flee revenge attacks.
October 2003 : First direct talks between Serbian and Kosovo Albanian leaders since 1999.
December 2003 : UN sets out conditions for final status talks in 2005.
January 2006 : President Rugova dies in Pristina after losing his battle with lung cancer. He is succeeded in February by Fatmir Sejdiu.
February 2006 : UN-sponsored talks on the future status of Kosovo begin.
March 2006 : Prime Minister Kosumi resigns following criticism of his performance from within his own party. He is succeeded by former KLA commander Agim Ceku.
July 2006 : First direct talks since 1999 between ethnic Serbian and Kosovan leaders on future status of Kosovo take place in Vienna.
October 2006 : Voters in a referendum in Serbia approve a new constitution which declares that Kosovo is an integral part of the country. Kosovo's Albanian majority boycotts the ballot and UN sponsored talks on the future of the disputed province continue.
February 2007 : United Nations envoy Martti Ahtisaari unveils a plan to set Kosovo on a path to independence, which is immediately welcomed by Kosovo Albanians and rejected by Serbia.
July 2007 : US and European Union redraft UN resolution to drop promise of independence at Russian insistence, replacing it with pledge to review situation if there is no breakthrough after four proposed months of talks with Serbia.
Kosovo's current status is regulated by the UN Security Council's resolution 1244 of 10th June 1999, that places the province under international administration. The Security Council has given UNMIK, created by resolution 1244, the task of administrating Kosovo's territory and population as well as the executive, legislative and judiciary powers. KFOR is the multinational armed force put in place by NATO to ensure stability in the region.
On November 2nd 2005, the former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari was mandated by the UN in order to supervise negociations between the Serb government and the Albanian government in Pristina (capital of Kosovo) on the future status of Kosovo.
In February 2007 he presented a plan which made provisions for the independance of Kosovo, albeit one supervised by the international community. This plan was welcomed by the Kosovo Albanians, and the EU and the USA, but was rejected by Serbia on March 10th 2007.
With the breakdown in negociations, the dossier was sent back to the 'contact group', which has no official powers or legitimacy and is made up of the USA, the UK, France, Italie, Belgium and Russia. A new phase of negociations, to last 120 days, was launched.
On July 25th 2007, the 'contact group' agreed to create a reduced troïka, made up of the EU, the USA and Russia. The representatives of the troïka - the German Wolfgang Ischinger, the Russian Alexander Botsan-Kharechenko and the American Frank Wisner - lead the negociations between Belgrade and Pristina in order to reconcile their positions before December 10th, at which time they must present the case to the UN's Secretary general Ban Ki-moon.
So far there have been four rounds of negociations between Pristina and Belgrade, supervised by the troïka, each as unhelpful as the last.
On September 27th the negociations took place in New York and gave nothing as Sern and Kosovan positions were irreconciliable. Serbia sees Kosovo as largely autonomous while Kosovan Albanians wil settle for nothing less than full independence.
On October 14th in Brussels things did not go better. For over four hours the delegation of Kosovan Albanians led by President Fatmir Sedjiu and Prime Minister Agim Ceku- and the Serbian Ministers Vuk Jeremic and Slobodan Samardzic, in charge of Foreign Afairs and Kosovo respectively, argued their positions without any result. However, Serbs and Kosovans agreed to abstain from any provocation or declaration likely to put the region's security in peril.
The third round of negociations were in Vienna on October 22nd. The delegations were to discuss the troïka's fourteen point plan, which includes the end of all Serbian presence in Kosovo. The plan does not put forward any definite proposals on the region's future status, but esablishes areas in which deeper cooperation would be good, including energy and fight against organised crime. No results came out of this meeting
On November 5th, the fourth round of negociations were held in Vienna and once again focusd on the troïka's plan. At this meeting one of the Albanian negociators warned that the province was prepared to declare independance if talks with Belgrade didn't get anywhere by December 10th. Onbviously, Belgrade has strong objections to this.
A new meeting has been pencilled in for November 20th.
As things stand, Kosovo wants total independance from Serbia and is prepared to self-declare independence on December 10th or even earlier. The Serbian Prime Minister has declared this to be illegal.Serbia
Here is a quick history of Kosovo and its relations with Serbia, to understand what is going on (thank you the BBC). A brief (and amateurish) analysis of what has been happening since 2005 follows.
1946: Kosovo is part of the Yugoslav federation
1960s : Belgrade (capital of Serbia) shows increasing tolerance for Kosovo's autonomy
1974 : the Consitution of Yugoslavia recognises the autonomous status of Kosovo and gives the province self-government
1989 : President Slobodan Milosevic amends the Constitution and starts withdrawing Kosovo's autonomous rights
1990 : Ethnic Albanians declare independence. Belgrade dissolves the government of Kosovo
1993-1997 : Inter ethnic strife worsens between Serbs and Albanians
March to September 1998 : Open conflict between Serb police and separatist Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Serb forces launch a brutal crackdown. Civilians are driven from their homes
Septembre 1998 : Nato gives an ultimatum to President Milosevic to halt the crackdown on Kosovo Albanians.
March 1999 : Internationally-brokered peace talks fail. Nato launches air strikes against Yugoslavia lasting 78 days before Belgrade yields.
June 1999 : President Milosevic agrees to withdraw troops from Kosovo. Nato calls off air strikes. The UN sets up a Kosovo Peace Implementation Force (Kfor) and Nato forces arrive in the province. The KLA agrees to disarm. Serb civilians flee revenge attacks.
October 2003 : First direct talks between Serbian and Kosovo Albanian leaders since 1999.
December 2003 : UN sets out conditions for final status talks in 2005.
January 2006 : President Rugova dies in Pristina after losing his battle with lung cancer. He is succeeded in February by Fatmir Sejdiu.
February 2006 : UN-sponsored talks on the future status of Kosovo begin.
March 2006 : Prime Minister Kosumi resigns following criticism of his performance from within his own party. He is succeeded by former KLA commander Agim Ceku.
July 2006 : First direct talks since 1999 between ethnic Serbian and Kosovan leaders on future status of Kosovo take place in Vienna.
October 2006 : Voters in a referendum in Serbia approve a new constitution which declares that Kosovo is an integral part of the country. Kosovo's Albanian majority boycotts the ballot and UN sponsored talks on the future of the disputed province continue.
February 2007 : United Nations envoy Martti Ahtisaari unveils a plan to set Kosovo on a path to independence, which is immediately welcomed by Kosovo Albanians and rejected by Serbia.
July 2007 : US and European Union redraft UN resolution to drop promise of independence at Russian insistence, replacing it with pledge to review situation if there is no breakthrough after four proposed months of talks with Serbia.
Kosovo's current status is regulated by the UN Security Council's resolution 1244 of 10th June 1999, that places the province under international administration. The Security Council has given UNMIK, created by resolution 1244, the task of administrating Kosovo's territory and population as well as the executive, legislative and judiciary powers. KFOR is the multinational armed force put in place by NATO to ensure stability in the region.
On November 2nd 2005, the former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari was mandated by the UN in order to supervise negociations between the Serb government and the Albanian government in Pristina (capital of Kosovo) on the future status of Kosovo.
In February 2007 he presented a plan which made provisions for the independance of Kosovo, albeit one supervised by the international community. This plan was welcomed by the Kosovo Albanians, and the EU and the USA, but was rejected by Serbia on March 10th 2007.
With the breakdown in negociations, the dossier was sent back to the 'contact group', which has no official powers or legitimacy and is made up of the USA, the UK, France, Italie, Belgium and Russia. A new phase of negociations, to last 120 days, was launched.
On July 25th 2007, the 'contact group' agreed to create a reduced troïka, made up of the EU, the USA and Russia. The representatives of the troïka - the German Wolfgang Ischinger, the Russian Alexander Botsan-Kharechenko and the American Frank Wisner - lead the negociations between Belgrade and Pristina in order to reconcile their positions before December 10th, at which time they must present the case to the UN's Secretary general Ban Ki-moon.
So far there have been four rounds of negociations between Pristina and Belgrade, supervised by the troïka, each as unhelpful as the last.
On September 27th the negociations took place in New York and gave nothing as Sern and Kosovan positions were irreconciliable. Serbia sees Kosovo as largely autonomous while Kosovan Albanians wil settle for nothing less than full independence.
On October 14th in Brussels things did not go better. For over four hours the delegation of Kosovan Albanians led by President Fatmir Sedjiu and Prime Minister Agim Ceku- and the Serbian Ministers Vuk Jeremic and Slobodan Samardzic, in charge of Foreign Afairs and Kosovo respectively, argued their positions without any result. However, Serbs and Kosovans agreed to abstain from any provocation or declaration likely to put the region's security in peril.
The third round of negociations were in Vienna on October 22nd. The delegations were to discuss the troïka's fourteen point plan, which includes the end of all Serbian presence in Kosovo. The plan does not put forward any definite proposals on the region's future status, but esablishes areas in which deeper cooperation would be good, including energy and fight against organised crime. No results came out of this meeting
On November 5th, the fourth round of negociations were held in Vienna and once again focusd on the troïka's plan. At this meeting one of the Albanian negociators warned that the province was prepared to declare independance if talks with Belgrade didn't get anywhere by December 10th. Onbviously, Belgrade has strong objections to this.
A new meeting has been pencilled in for November 20th.
As things stand, Kosovo wants total independance from Serbia and is prepared to self-declare independence on December 10th or even earlier. The Serbian Prime Minister has declared this to be illegal.
Also, within the troïka, opinions are divided. The EU and the
The biggest problem with Kosovo’s independence is that it could start a whole series of calls for independence from regions.
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